Bird flu risk in UK underestimated
Professor Hugh Pennington, the president of the Society for General Microbiology and professor emeritus of bacteriology at Aberdeen University warned today that British government estimates of 50 000 deaths from avian flu are based on enormously optimistic assumptions (that the death rate is no higher than for normal flu and that there is only one wave of flu) and that the government is making a mistake similar to the one made 10 years ago regarding BSE. He believes a more realistic figure is around 2 million deaths, many from pneumonia, for which there is still no effective treatment.
In the last week, 2 nurses in Vietnam have caught avian flu. Infection of health workers is a first indication, according to health experts, that the virus has become capable of jumping directly from one person to another.
The British government has ordered over 14 million doses of an anti-viral drug for delivery in two years time, which can be used to treat avian flu (at the moment there is no vaccine available, although tests are being made on experimental vaccines which are expected to offer some protection against the flu). A marginally better situation than in Germany, where risk of avian flu has been played down, with the government focussing more on the danger to German poultry, than on the risk to the human population. (I don’t recall seeing any reports in the German press about measures being taken to protect the local population against avian flu, despite the World Health Organisation’s latest warning that “The world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic.”).
The current status of influenza infections in Europe is available here, by the way.
An example of the current German position on bird flu can be found on the web site for the Bundesministerium für Gesundheit und Soziale Sicherung (the Minstry of Health and Social Security):
Bundesgesundheitsministerium beobachtet die Lage und die Verbreitung der Vogelgrippe mit größter Sorgfalt. Es steht im ständigen Kontakt mit den Experten des Robert-Koch-Instituts. Bundesgesundheitsministerin Ulla Schmidt informiert sich laufend über den aktuellen Stand der Entwicklung.(The Ministry of Health is observing the situation regarding avian flu and its spread with the greatest care. It is in continuous contact with the experts of the Robert Koch Institute. The Minister for Health, Ulla Schmidt, keeps herself continuously informed on the latest developments.
Das Bundesgesundheitsministerium ist ebenso im engen Kontakt mit den Bundesländern und bietet – wenn es gewünscht ist – beratend Expertisen und fachliche Unterstützung an. Es hat heute mit den obersten Gesundheitsbehörden deshalb eine noch engere Konsultation und Information vereinbart.
The Ministry of Health is also in contact with the regional governments and offers – if asked – consultancy and expert support. It has therefore agreed today [JK: 2005-02-03] to even closer consultation and information exchange with the highest level of the health organsiations.
). Well – that really reassures me.