The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) published a report this week assessing how the relationship between the USA and other parts of the World will probably develop by 2025. The report is written every four years for the incoming government and is thus relatively easy non-technical reading.
It predicts that US influence will wane and that India and China will exert more influence on world politics.
The EU is likely to remain hobbled by the conflicting power politics played out between the various member nations. I find this rather sad. Having lived about 28 years in Britain and the same number in Germany, I can’t say I feel either “British” or “German” and we don’t plan to retire to either country when the time comes; but I do feel “European” and we certainly plan to retire within Europe.
I would like to see the European national governments work towards a federal European government which takes political and military decisions on behalf of all member nations. But that clearly won’t happen any time soon. Just look at how Germany has tried to push purely national policies for supporting the financial institutions in the last few weeks. Clearly, other than in the USA, where it is acceptable to provide federal support to specific states, there is no willingness to let German money be used to support Italian or French banks. I don’t see the mindset changing as long as the popular press – papers like the Sun or the Daily Mail in the UK, Bild in Germany – regularly whip up jingoism as a way of increasing their circulation.
If you would like to read the whole (120 page) NIC report, and look in more detail at how our world is likely to develop, the BBC provides a link to the report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (pdf, 33 MB).
Remember, however, the US intelligence services have in the past made some pretty spectacular blunders – things may develop completely differently!
